If Jeb Bush doesn’t win any of the first four GOP contests — Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina and Nevada — does that eliminate him from the Republican race? Or does he have the staying power to survive those losses?
If Texas Sen. Ted Cruz finishes first in the Iowa caucuses, does that all but eliminate hopefuls such as Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal, former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum, former Texas Gov. Rick Perry and Ben Carson from the race?
If Kentucky Sen. Rand Paul finishes fourth in Iowa (which would be worse than his father’s third-place showing in the caucuses in 2012), can he come back in New Hampshire or Nevada? Are Florida Sen. Marco Rubio and Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker in a mini-contest of their own, with only one able to survive the February contests?
We all love to “game out” crowded presidential contests, just like we do football games, the stock market and future episodes of “Homeland.” It’s fun, after all, and if we get things right we can smugly point to our great analysis and instincts.
But when I was speaking recently to a veteran Republican consultant (who will be deeply involved in the race) about various possible scenarios, he brought me back to reality with three short words: Don’t do it.
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